May 17, 2006
Resources on the Dynamic Scoring Issue
As the President signs the latest tax cut bill today, much discussion has centered on the economic growth consequences—both short-run and long-run—of such tax cuts, as well as the revenue implications. Many economists have discussed to what extent, if any, static analysis of the extended tax cuts overstates their foregone revenue costs.
For those unfamiliar with the issue or those merely seeking further reading on the topic, we‘ve assembled a collection of articles (some technical, some general) on the issue of “dynamic scoring.” We’ve attempted to provide a balanced compilation of the literature, focusing on the main players in the dynamic scoring debate over the past thirty years, including Alan Auerbach, Martin Feldstein, and Arthur Laffer.
Note this collection includes only literature that is freely available on the web, and excludes many academic articles available only through services such as JSTOR.
Dynamic Scoring: An Introduction to the Issue, by Alan Auerbach
http://emlab.berkeley.edu/users/auerbach/dynamscor.pdfStatic vs. Dynamic Scoring, American Enterprise Institute Event (November 2003), includes video, transcripts, and summary of event, which included, among others Auerbach, Martin Feldstein, Bill Gale (Brookings), Kevin Hassett (AEI), Douglas Holtz-Eakin, and Benjamin Page.
http://www.aei.org/events/filter.all,eventID.662/event_detail.aspOverview of Revenue Estimation Procedures and methodologies Used by the Joint Committee on Taxation
http://www.house.gov/jct/x-1-05.pdfDynamic Scoring: A Back-of-the-Envelope Guide (fairly technical using economic growth theory), by Greg Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl
http://post.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/mankiw/papers/dynamicscoring_05-1212.pdfDynamic Scoring: Alternative Financing Schemes (technical), by Eric Leeper and Shu-Chun Susan Yang
http://www.nber.org/papers/w12103.pdfMacroeconomic Implications of Federal Budget Proposals and the Scoring Process, by Peter Orszag
http://www.brook.edu/views/testimony/Orszag/20020502.pdfThe Role of Dynamic Scoring in the Federal Budget Process: Closing the Gap between Theory and Practice, by Rosanne Altshuler, Nicholas Bull, John Diamond, Tim Dowd and Pamela Moomau
http://www.aeaweb.org/annual_mtg_papers/2005/0107_1430_1302.pdfMethodology and Issues in Measuring Changes in the Distribution of Tax Burdens
http://www.house.gov/jct/s-7-93.pdfThe Effect of Taxes on Efficiency and Growth, by Martin Feldstein
http://www.nber.org/papers/w12201The Laffer Curve (Wiki entry)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laffer_curveOn the Analytics of the Dynamic Laffer Curve, by Jonas Egell and Mats Perrson
http://www.iies.su.se/publications/seminarpapers/682.pdfCBO Testimony on Federal Budget Estimating (May 2002)
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3422&sequence=0
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3511&sequence=0
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=3384&sequence=0The Case for Dynamic Scoring, Bruce Bartlett (2002, National Review Online)
http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett050602.aspDynamic Scoring: Not So Fast!, by Rudolph Penner
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/template.cfm?PubID=9698Greenspan Comments on Dynamic Scoring (testimony from 2002)
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=107_house_hearings&docid=f:81696.waisBernanke Comments on Dynamic Scoring
http://www.taxfoundation.org/blog/show/1462.html
